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Aucas vs Delfin SC — Liga Pro 2026

Aucas
Aucas
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Delfin SC
Delfin SC
11/11/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Placement Group - 5Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Aucas54%
×Draw24%
Delfin SC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aucas
1.71
Delfin SC
0.99

Aucas creates 73% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 133 away

creates per match

Aucas
1.75
Delfin SC
0.95

allows per match

Aucas
1.04
Delfin SC
1.67

finishing

Aucas+0.00on par
Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

Delfin SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aucas or draw
78%
Aucas or Delfin SC
76%
Draw or Delfin SC
46%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+
30%
Delfin SC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals
82%
Aucas 2+ goals
51%
Aucas 3+ goals
24%
Delfin SC 1+ goals
63%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
26%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)
71%
Delfin SC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 134 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.75 + Delfin SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Delfin SC attack 0.95 + Aucas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Aucas scores more
54%
level
24%
Delfin SC scores more
22%

Aucas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aucas vs Delfin SC

Aucas beat Delfin SC 8-0 in Liga Pro on November 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda in Quito.