Aucas 1–3 CD Olmedo: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Aucas

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

CD Olmedo

H. González 86' (pen)

M. Montaño 68'

J. Rezabala 56'

J. Ayoví 33'

4/17/2021

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 9Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Aucas59%

×Draw21%

CD Olmedo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AucasExpected goals in this matchCD Olmedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.08

Aucas

2.04

CD Olmedo

1.08

Aucas creates 89% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 45 away

1.75

creates per match

1.13

1.04

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Aucas

1.75

CD Olmedo

1.13

allows per match

Aucas

1.04

CD Olmedo

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aucas+0.00on par

CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

CD Olmedo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Aucas or draw

80%

Aucas or CD Olmedo

79%

Draw or CD Olmedo

41%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+

36%

CD Olmedo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals

87%

Aucas 2+ goals

60%

Aucas 3+ goals

33%

CD Olmedo 1+ goals

66%

CD Olmedo 2+ goals

29%

CD Olmedo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)

75%

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 134 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.75 + CD Olmedo defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

CD Olmedo attack 1.13 + Aucas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Aucas scores more

59%

level

21%

CD Olmedo scores more

20%

Aucas at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Ayrton Cisneros

33'

J. Ayoví

46'

J. Briones← C. Borja

46'

S. Quintero← M. Yedro

46'

E. Esterilla← M. Gruezo

56'

J. Rezabala↳ M. Montaño

58'

J. Batioja← G. Nnachi

58'

J. Mina← J. Ponguillo

64'

B. de Jesús← B. Rodríguez

64'

D. Garcia← G. Corozo

68'

M. Montaño

71'

B. Sánchez← C. Zambrano

74'

A. Caicedo← J. Vivar

76'

D. Quintero← J. Andrade

82'

Dennis Quintero

86'

H. GonzálezPenalty

90+1'

Ely Esterilla

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AucasCD

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots6

5Corners3

20Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots6

5On Target4

3Off Target2

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls9

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1