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Aubstadt vs Würzburger FV — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Aubstadt
Aubstadt
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
2/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Aubstadt83%
×Draw13%
Würzburger FV5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aubstadt
2.59
Würzburger FV
0.46

Aubstadt creates 463% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Aubstadt
2.44
Würzburger FV
0.25

allows per match

Aubstadt
0.67
Würzburger FV
2.75

finishing

Aubstadt+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aubstadt ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Aubstadt or draw
95%
Aubstadt or Würzburger FV
87%
Draw or Würzburger FV
17%

Winning margin

Aubstadt wins by 2+
61%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Aubstadt 1+ goals
92%
Aubstadt 2+ goals
73%
Aubstadt 3+ goals
47%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
37%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
8%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Aubstadt (draw refunded)
95%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aubstadt at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aubstadt attack 2.44 + Würzburger FV defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.59

Würzburger FV attack 0.25 + Aubstadt defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Aubstadt scores more
83%
level
13%
Würzburger FV scores more
5%

Aubstadt at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Aubstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Aubstadt 4–0 Würzburger FV

Aubstadt beat Würzburger FV 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 21, 2026.