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Aubstadt vs Vilzing — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Aubstadt
Aubstadt
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vilzing
Vilzing
2/25/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 25NGN-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Aubstadt49%
×Draw24%
Vilzing27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aubstadt
1.73
Vilzing
1.24

Aubstadt creates 40% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 54 away

creates per match

Aubstadt
1.84
Vilzing
1.50

allows per match

Aubstadt
0.98
Vilzing
1.63

finishing

Aubstadt+0.00on par
Vilzing+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aubstadt ↓

Vilzing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Aubstadt or draw
73%
Aubstadt or Vilzing
76%
Draw or Vilzing
51%

Winning margin

Aubstadt wins by 2+
26%
Vilzing wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aubstadt 1+ goals
82%
Aubstadt 2+ goals
52%
Aubstadt 3+ goals
25%
Vilzing 1+ goals
71%
Vilzing 2+ goals
35%
Vilzing 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aubstadt (draw refunded)
64%
Vilzing (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aubstadt at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Vilzing away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aubstadt attack 1.84 + Vilzing defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Vilzing attack 1.50 + Aubstadt defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aubstadt scores more
49%
level
24%
Vilzing scores more
27%

Aubstadt at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aubstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Aubstadt 0–1 Vilzing

Vilzing beat Aubstadt 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at NGN-Arena in Aubstadt.