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Aubstadt vs Türkgücü-Ataspor — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Aubstadt
Aubstadt
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Türkgücü-Ataspor
Türkgücü-Ataspor
8/11/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 4NGN-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Aubstadt50%
×Draw24%
Türkgücü-Ataspor26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aubstadt
1.72
Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.19

Aubstadt creates 45% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 47 away

creates per match

Aubstadt
1.84
Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.40

allows per match

Aubstadt
0.98
Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.60

finishing

Aubstadt+0.00on par
Türkgücü-Ataspor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aubstadt ↓

Türkgücü-Ataspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aubstadt or draw
74%
Aubstadt or Türkgücü-Ataspor
76%
Draw or Türkgücü-Ataspor
50%

Winning margin

Aubstadt wins by 2+
27%
Türkgücü-Ataspor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aubstadt 1+ goals
82%
Aubstadt 2+ goals
51%
Aubstadt 3+ goals
25%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 1+ goals
70%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 2+ goals
33%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aubstadt (draw refunded)
65%
Türkgücü-Ataspor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aubstadt at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Türkgücü-Ataspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aubstadt attack 1.84 + Türkgücü-Ataspor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Türkgücü-Ataspor attack 1.40 + Aubstadt defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aubstadt scores more
50%
level
24%
Türkgücü-Ataspor scores more
26%

Aubstadt at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aubstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Aubstadt 3–0 Türkgücü-Ataspor

Aubstadt beat Türkgücü-Ataspor 3-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at NGN-Arena in Aubstadt.