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Aubstadt vs Nürnberg II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Aubstadt
Aubstadt
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
8/25/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 6NGN-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Aubstadt44%
×Draw24%
Nürnberg II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aubstadt
1.64
Nürnberg II
1.37

Aubstadt creates 20% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 86 away

creates per match

Aubstadt
1.84
Nürnberg II
1.76

allows per match

Aubstadt
0.98
Nürnberg II
1.44

finishing

Aubstadt+0.00on par
Nürnberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aubstadt ↓

Nürnberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Aubstadt or draw
68%
Aubstadt or Nürnberg II
76%
Draw or Nürnberg II
56%

Winning margin

Aubstadt wins by 2+
23%
Nürnberg II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Aubstadt 1+ goals
81%
Aubstadt 2+ goals
49%
Aubstadt 3+ goals
23%
Nürnberg II 1+ goals
75%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
40%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Aubstadt (draw refunded)
58%
Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aubstadt at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Nürnberg II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aubstadt attack 1.84 + Nürnberg II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

Nürnberg II attack 1.76 + Aubstadt defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aubstadt scores more
44%
level
24%
Nürnberg II scores more
32%

Aubstadt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aubstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aubstadt vs Nürnberg II

Aubstadt beat Nürnberg II 2-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 25, 2023.

The match was played at NGN-Arena in Aubstadt.