Aubstadt vs 1860 Rosenheim — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Aubstadt68%
1860 Rosenheim14%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Aubstadt creates 135% more chances
Season form · 86 home / 32 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over68
- Under32
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Aubstadt ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Aubstadt at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.99 · 86 matches
1860 Rosenheim away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.16 · 32 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Aubstadt attack 1.81 + 1860 Rosenheim defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.49
1860 Rosenheim attack 1.13 + Aubstadt defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 68%?"
Aubstadt at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 68% does not mean "Aubstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
Nürnberg II
Würzburger Kickers
SpVgg Unterhaching
Illertissen
VilzingAubstadt
Eichstätt
Bayern München II
Wacker Burghausen
Ansbach
Buchbach
Memmingen
Schwaben Augsburg
Bayreuth
Greuther Fürth II
Augsburg II
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Hankofen-Hailing
Kirchanschöring
ChamIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Aubstadt host 1860 Rosenheim on Saturday, 5 October 2019 at 12:00. The match is part of the Regionalliga - Bayern 2019/2020 season.
Regionalliga - Bayern: Aubstadt 2–0 1860 Rosenheim
Aubstadt beat 1860 Rosenheim 2-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on October 5, 2019.
Goals: D. Leicht (44'), T. Pitter (79').
The match was played at Schulstadion in Aubstadt.