Aubagne 0–2 Toulouse: Result & Stats

Aubagne

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Toulouse

N. N'Goumou 53'

K. Koné 9'

3/5/2021

Coupe de France · Round of 32Stade Francis Turcan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aubagne21%

×Draw20%

Toulouse59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AubagneExpected goals in this matchToulouse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.17

Aubagne

1.23

Toulouse

2.17

Toulouse creates 76% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

1.40

creates per match

2.14

2.20

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Aubagne

1.40

Toulouse

2.14

allows per match

Aubagne

2.20

Toulouse

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aubagne+0.00on par

Toulouse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aubagne ↓

Toulouse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Aubagne or draw

41%

Aubagne or Toulouse

80%

Draw or Toulouse

79%

Winning margin

Aubagne wins by 2+

8%

Toulouse wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Aubagne 1+ goals

71%

Aubagne 2+ goals

35%

Aubagne 3+ goals

13%

Toulouse 1+ goals

89%

Toulouse 2+ goals

64%

Toulouse 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Aubagne (draw refunded)

26%

Toulouse (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aubagne at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Toulouse away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aubagne attack 1.40 + Toulouse defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Toulouse attack 2.14 + Aubagne defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Aubagne scores more

21%

level

20%

Toulouse scores more

59%

Toulouse at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

I. Pettersson

Toulouse · G

8.3

Match Events

9'

K. Koné

53'

N. N'Goumou

64'

H. Zakouani Saïd← J. Orsattoni

67'

S. Mvoue← K. Koné

72'

S. Semaoun← K. Keben

76'

J. Petrozzi← F. Galley

79'

E. Koulouris← R. Healey

79'

S. Zobo← J. Antiste

84'

A. Gnahore← F. Gomis

84'

A. Khannous← B. Fourrier

88'

Jonathan Petrozzi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AubagneToulouse

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots10

7Corners5

20Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots10

6On Target5

11Off Target3

2Blocked2

8Inside Box4

11Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

352Total Passes326

224Accurate Passes201

64%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

20Fouls13

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides4