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Aubagne vs Martigues — Coupe de France 2018

Aubagne
Aubagne
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Martigues
Martigues
11/13/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade de Lattre de Tassigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aubagne22%
×Draw19%
Martigues59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aubagne
1.40
Martigues
2.40

Martigues creates 71% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aubagne
1.40
Martigues
2.60

allows per match

Aubagne
2.20
Martigues
1.40

finishing

Aubagne+0.00on par
Martigues+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aubagne ↓

Martigues →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Aubagne or draw
41%
Aubagne or Martigues
81%
Draw or Martigues
78%

Winning margin

Aubagne wins by 2+
9%
Martigues wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Aubagne 1+ goals
75%
Aubagne 2+ goals
41%
Aubagne 3+ goals
17%
Martigues 1+ goals
91%
Martigues 2+ goals
69%
Martigues 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Aubagne (draw refunded)
27%
Martigues (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aubagne at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Martigues away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aubagne attack 1.40 + Martigues defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Martigues attack 2.60 + Aubagne defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Aubagne scores more
22%
level
19%
Martigues scores more
59%

Martigues at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Martigues will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aubagne vs Martigues

Aubagne and Martigues drew 2-2 in Coupe de France on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Lattre de Tassigny in Aubagne.