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Atzeneta vs Valencia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Atzeneta
Atzeneta
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Valencia II
Valencia II
2/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 27Campo De Futbol El Regit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atzeneta41%
×Draw30%
Valencia II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atzeneta
1.15
Valencia II
0.91

Atzeneta creates 26% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 18 away

creates per match

Atzeneta
1.35
Valencia II
0.94

allows per match

Atzeneta
0.87
Valencia II
0.94

finishing

Atzeneta+0.00on par
Valencia II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atzeneta ↓

Valencia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atzeneta or draw
71%
Atzeneta or Valencia II
70%
Draw or Valencia II
59%

Winning margin

Atzeneta wins by 2+
17%
Valencia II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atzeneta 1+ goals
68%
Atzeneta 2+ goals
32%
Atzeneta 3+ goals
11%
Valencia II 1+ goals
60%
Valencia II 2+ goals
23%
Valencia II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atzeneta (draw refunded)
59%
Valencia II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atzeneta at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

Valencia II away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atzeneta attack 1.35 + Valencia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.15

Valencia II attack 0.94 + Atzeneta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atzeneta scores more
41%
level
30%
Valencia II scores more
29%

Atzeneta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atzeneta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Atzeneta 4–2 Valencia II

Atzeneta beat Valencia II 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Campo De Futbol El Regit in Atzeneta d'Albaida.