Atzeneta 2–0 Racing CF Benidorm: Result & Stats

Atzeneta

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Racing CF Benidorm

10/5/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 5Campo De Futbol El Regit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atzeneta46%

×Draw27%

Racing CF Benidorm26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtzenetaExpected goals in this matchRacing CF Benidorm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.97

Atzeneta

1.38

Racing CF Benidorm

0.97

Atzeneta creates 42% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 17 away

1.35

creates per match

1.06

0.87

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Atzeneta

1.35

Racing CF Benidorm

1.06

allows per match

Atzeneta

0.87

Racing CF Benidorm

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atzeneta+0.00on par

Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atzeneta ↓

Racing CF Benidorm →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atzeneta or draw

74%

Atzeneta or Racing CF Benidorm

73%

Draw or Racing CF Benidorm

54%

Winning margin

Atzeneta wins by 2+

22%

Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+

Team goals

Atzeneta 1+ goals

75%

Atzeneta 2+ goals

40%

Atzeneta 3+ goals

16%

Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals

62%

Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals

25%

Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atzeneta (draw refunded)

64%

Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atzeneta at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

Racing CF Benidorm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atzeneta attack 1.35 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + Atzeneta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atzeneta scores more

46%

level

27%

Racing CF Benidorm scores more

26%

Atzeneta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atzeneta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Atzeneta 2–0 Racing CF Benidorm

Atzeneta beat Racing CF Benidorm 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Futbol El Regit in Atzeneta d'Albaida.

Atzeneta vs Racing CF Benidorm — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Atzeneta 2–0 Racing CF Benidorm