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Atzeneta vs Olímpic Xàtiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Atzeneta
Atzeneta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olímpic Xàtiva
Olímpic Xàtiva
2/5/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 25Campo De Futbol El Regit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Atzeneta51%
×Draw28%
Olímpic Xàtiva22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atzeneta
1.38
Olímpic Xàtiva
0.80

Atzeneta creates 72% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 44 away

creates per match

Atzeneta
1.35
Olímpic Xàtiva
0.73

allows per match

Atzeneta
0.87
Olímpic Xàtiva
1.41

finishing

Atzeneta+0.00on par
Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atzeneta ↓

Olímpic Xàtiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atzeneta or draw
78%
Atzeneta or Olímpic Xàtiva
72%
Draw or Olímpic Xàtiva
49%

Winning margin

Atzeneta wins by 2+
25%
Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atzeneta 1+ goals
75%
Atzeneta 2+ goals
40%
Atzeneta 3+ goals
16%
Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals
55%
Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals
19%
Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atzeneta (draw refunded)
70%
Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atzeneta at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

Olímpic Xàtiva away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atzeneta attack 1.35 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 0.73 + Atzeneta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atzeneta scores more
51%
level
28%
Olímpic Xàtiva scores more
22%

Atzeneta at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atzeneta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atzeneta vs Olímpic Xàtiva

Atzeneta beat Olímpic Xàtiva 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Campo De Futbol El Regit in Atzeneta d'Albaida.