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Atzeneta vs Levante II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Atzeneta
Atzeneta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Levante II
Levante II
2/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 21Campo De Futbol El Regit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Atzeneta40%
×Draw29%
Levante II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atzeneta
1.19
Levante II
1.00

Atzeneta creates 19% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 68 away

creates per match

Atzeneta
1.35
Levante II
1.12

allows per match

Atzeneta
0.87
Levante II
1.03

finishing

Atzeneta+0.00on par
Levante II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atzeneta ↓

Levante II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atzeneta or draw
69%
Atzeneta or Levante II
71%
Draw or Levante II
60%

Winning margin

Atzeneta wins by 2+
17%
Levante II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atzeneta 1+ goals
70%
Atzeneta 2+ goals
33%
Atzeneta 3+ goals
12%
Levante II 1+ goals
63%
Levante II 2+ goals
26%
Levante II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atzeneta (draw refunded)
57%
Levante II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atzeneta at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

Levante II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atzeneta attack 1.35 + Levante II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19

Levante II attack 1.12 + Atzeneta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atzeneta scores more
40%
level
29%
Levante II scores more
31%

Atzeneta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atzeneta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atzeneta vs Levante II

Atzeneta beat Levante II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Futbol El Regit in Atzeneta d'Albaida.