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Atzeneta vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Atzeneta
Atzeneta
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Castellón II
Castellón II
11/16/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 11Campo De Futbol El Regit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atzeneta46%
×Draw26%
Castellón II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atzeneta
1.45
Castellón II
1.04

Atzeneta creates 39% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 67 away

creates per match

Atzeneta
1.35
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Atzeneta
0.87
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Atzeneta+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atzeneta ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atzeneta or draw
73%
Atzeneta or Castellón II
74%
Draw or Castellón II
54%

Winning margin

Atzeneta wins by 2+
23%
Castellón II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atzeneta 1+ goals
77%
Atzeneta 2+ goals
42%
Atzeneta 3+ goals
18%
Castellón II 1+ goals
65%
Castellón II 2+ goals
28%
Castellón II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atzeneta (draw refunded)
63%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atzeneta at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atzeneta attack 1.35 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Atzeneta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atzeneta scores more
46%
level
26%
Castellón II scores more
27%

Atzeneta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atzeneta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Atzeneta 2–0 Castellón II

Atzeneta beat Castellón II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Futbol El Regit in Atzeneta d'Albaida.