Atzeneta 3–0 Callosa Deportiva: Result & Stats

Atzeneta

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Callosa Deportiva

3/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 32Campo De Futbol El Regit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atzeneta49%

×Draw29%

Callosa Deportiva22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtzenetaExpected goals in this matchCallosa Deportiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.77

Atzeneta

1.31

Callosa Deportiva

0.77

Atzeneta creates 70% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 18 away

1.35

creates per match

0.67

0.87

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Atzeneta

1.35

Callosa Deportiva

0.67

allows per match

Atzeneta

0.87

Callosa Deportiva

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atzeneta+0.00on par

Callosa Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atzeneta ↓

Callosa Deportiva →

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atzeneta or draw

78%

Atzeneta or Callosa Deportiva

71%

Draw or Callosa Deportiva

51%

Winning margin

Atzeneta wins by 2+

23%

Callosa Deportiva wins by 2+

Team goals

Atzeneta 1+ goals

73%

Atzeneta 2+ goals

38%

Atzeneta 3+ goals

14%

Callosa Deportiva 1+ goals

54%

Callosa Deportiva 2+ goals

18%

Callosa Deportiva 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atzeneta (draw refunded)

69%

Callosa Deportiva (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atzeneta at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

Callosa Deportiva away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atzeneta attack 1.35 + Callosa Deportiva defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Callosa Deportiva attack 0.67 + Atzeneta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atzeneta scores more

49%

level

29%

Callosa Deportiva scores more

22%

Atzeneta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atzeneta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff