Atyrau 0–1 Akzhayik: Result & Stats

Atyrau

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Akzhayik

O. Omirtayev 37'

4/9/2022

Premier League · Round 5Stadion Munayşı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Atyrau42%

×Draw30%

Akzhayik28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtyrauExpected goals in this matchAkzhayik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.88

Atyrau

1.15

Akzhayik

0.88

Atyrau creates 31% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 26 away

0.91

creates per match

0.65

1.10

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Atyrau

0.91

Akzhayik

0.65

allows per match

Atyrau

1.10

Akzhayik

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atyrau+0.00on par

Akzhayik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrau ↓

Akzhayik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atyrau or draw

72%

Atyrau or Akzhayik

70%

Draw or Akzhayik

58%

Winning margin

Atyrau wins by 2+

18%

Akzhayik wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atyrau 1+ goals

68%

Atyrau 2+ goals

32%

Atyrau 3+ goals

11%

Akzhayik 1+ goals

59%

Akzhayik 2+ goals

22%

Akzhayik 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atyrau (draw refunded)

60%

Akzhayik (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrau at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

Akzhayik away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrau attack 0.91 + Akzhayik defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Akzhayik attack 0.65 + Atyrau defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atyrau scores more

42%

level

30%

Akzhayik scores more

28%

Atyrau at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atyrau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

33'

37'

45+2'

46'

A. Katrich← D. Pletnev

46'

K. Kalmuratov← M. Paragulgov

55'

A. Gazdanov← I. Antipov

55'

E. Abdrakhmanov← A. Saulet

57'

B. Turysbek← P. Grzelczak

67'

L. Imnadze

69'

S. Takulov

81'

D. Antanavičius← T. Petrović

81'

M. Pangerey← A. Filipović

82'

P. Baranowski

82'

R. Khairov← O. Omirtayev

90'

D. Antanavicius

90+5'

V. Pokatilov← L. Imnadze

Atyrau

Akzhayik

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Gorovenko

46'▲A. Katrich←▼D. Pletnev

46'▲K. Kalmuratov←▼M. Paragulgov

57'▲B. Turysbek←▼P. Grzelczak

81'▲D. Antanavičius←▼T. Petrović

81'▲M. Pangerey←▼A. Filipović

Atyrau substitutes

KatrichKalmuratovTurysbekAntanavičiusPangereySeytkalievZhomartovKalybayevKaravayevIbragimovAmanzhol

Manager: V. Mazyar

55'▲A. Gazdanov←▼I. Antipov

55'▲E. Abdrakhmanov←▼A. Saulet

82'▲R. Khairov←▼O. Omirtayev

90+5'▲V. Pokatilov←▼L. Imnadze

Akzhayik substitutes

GazdanovAbdrakhmanovKhairovPokatilovImangazeyevMukashevKarpenkoMakhnovskyiCrnčević