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Atyrá vs SOL DE America — Division Intermedia 2018

Atyrá
Atyrá
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
SOL DE America
SOL DE America
5/18/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 8Estadio San Francisco de Asis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Atyrá36%
×Draw27%
SOL DE America37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atyrá
1.23
SOL DE America
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 36 away

creates per match

Atyrá
1.23
SOL DE America
1.36

allows per match

Atyrá
1.19
SOL DE America
1.22

finishing

Atyrá+0.00on par
SOL DE America+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrá ↓

SOL DE America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atyrá or draw
63%
Atyrá or SOL DE America
73%
Draw or SOL DE America
64%

Winning margin

Atyrá wins by 2+
15%
SOL DE America wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atyrá 1+ goals
71%
Atyrá 2+ goals
35%
Atyrá 3+ goals
13%
SOL DE America 1+ goals
72%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
36%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atyrá (draw refunded)
49%
SOL DE America (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrá at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

SOL DE America away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrá attack 1.23 + SOL DE America defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

SOL DE America attack 1.36 + Atyrá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atyrá scores more
36%
level
27%
SOL DE America scores more
37%

SOL DE America at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "SOL DE America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atyrá vs SOL DE America

SOL DE America beat Atyrá 2-1 in Division Intermedia on May 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco de Asis in Atyrä.