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Atyrá vs Guaraní de Trinidad — Division Intermedia 2018

Atyrá
Atyrá
FT
2 – 2
Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
7/4/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 16Estadio San Francisco de Asis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atyrá40%
×Draw27%
Guaraní de Trinidad32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atyrá
1.29
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.13

Atyrá creates 14% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 32 away

creates per match

Atyrá
1.23
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.06

allows per match

Atyrá
1.19
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.34

finishing

Atyrá+0.00on par
Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrá ↓

Guaraní de Trinidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atyrá or draw
68%
Atyrá or Guaraní de Trinidad
73%
Draw or Guaraní de Trinidad
60%

Winning margin

Atyrá wins by 2+
18%
Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atyrá 1+ goals
72%
Atyrá 2+ goals
37%
Atyrá 3+ goals
14%
Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
68%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
31%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atyrá (draw refunded)
55%
Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrá at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Guaraní de Trinidad away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrá attack 1.23 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 1.06 + Atyrá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atyrá scores more
40%
level
27%
Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
32%

Atyrá at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atyrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atyrá vs Guaraní de Trinidad

Atyrá and Guaraní de Trinidad drew 2-2 in Division Intermedia on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco de Asis in Atyrä.