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Atyrá vs General Caballero — Division Intermedia 2018

Atyrá
Atyrá
FT
0 – 1
General Caballero
General Caballero
4/25/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 3Estadio San Francisco de Asis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Atyrá39%
×Draw27%
General Caballero34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atyrá
1.32
General Caballero
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 53 away

creates per match

Atyrá
1.23
General Caballero
1.25

allows per match

Atyrá
1.19
General Caballero
1.42

finishing

Atyrá+0.00on par
General Caballero+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrá ↓

General Caballero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atyrá or draw
66%
Atyrá or General Caballero
73%
Draw or General Caballero
61%

Winning margin

Atyrá wins by 2+
18%
General Caballero wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atyrá 1+ goals
73%
Atyrá 2+ goals
38%
Atyrá 3+ goals
15%
General Caballero 1+ goals
70%
General Caballero 2+ goals
34%
General Caballero 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atyrá (draw refunded)
53%
General Caballero (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrá at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

General Caballero away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrá attack 1.23 + General Caballero defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

General Caballero attack 1.25 + Atyrá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atyrá scores more
39%
level
27%
General Caballero scores more
34%

Atyrá at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atyrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Atyrá 0–1 General Caballero

General Caballero beat Atyrá 1-0 in Division Intermedia on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco de Asis in Atyrä.