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Atyrá vs Fulgencio Yegros — Division Intermedia 2018

Atyrá
Atyrá
FT
1 – 0
Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
8/18/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17Estadio San Francisco de Asis (Atyrä)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Atyrá46%
×Draw27%
Fulgencio Yegros28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atyrá
1.42
Fulgencio Yegros
1.04

Atyrá creates 37% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 48 away

creates per match

Atyrá
1.23
Fulgencio Yegros
0.90

allows per match

Atyrá
1.19
Fulgencio Yegros
1.60

finishing

Atyrá+0.00on par
Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrá ↓

Fulgencio Yegros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atyrá or draw
72%
Atyrá or Fulgencio Yegros
73%
Draw or Fulgencio Yegros
54%

Winning margin

Atyrá wins by 2+
22%
Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atyrá 1+ goals
76%
Atyrá 2+ goals
41%
Atyrá 3+ goals
17%
Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
65%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
28%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atyrá (draw refunded)
62%
Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrá at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Fulgencio Yegros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrá attack 1.23 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.90 + Atyrá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atyrá scores more
46%
level
27%
Fulgencio Yegros scores more
28%

Atyrá at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atyrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atyrá 1 – 0 Fulgencio Yegros

Atyrá beat Fulgencio Yegros 1-0 in Division Intermedia on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco de Asis (Atyrä).