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Atyrá vs Atlético Colegiales — Division Intermedia 2018

Atyrá
Atyrá
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
4/2/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 1Estadio San Francisco de Asis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Atyrá50%
×Draw25%
Atlético Colegiales25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atyrá
1.64
Atlético Colegiales
1.08

Atyrá creates 52% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 44 away

creates per match

Atyrá
1.23
Atlético Colegiales
0.98

allows per match

Atyrá
1.19
Atlético Colegiales
2.05

finishing

Atyrá+0.00on par
Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrá ↓

Atlético Colegiales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atyrá or draw
75%
Atyrá or Atlético Colegiales
75%
Draw or Atlético Colegiales
50%

Winning margin

Atyrá wins by 2+
27%
Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atyrá 1+ goals
81%
Atyrá 2+ goals
49%
Atyrá 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atyrá (draw refunded)
67%
Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrá at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Atlético Colegiales away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrá attack 1.23 + Atlético Colegiales defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.64

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.98 + Atyrá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atyrá scores more
50%
level
25%
Atlético Colegiales scores more
25%

Atyrá at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atyrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Atyrá 1–1 Atlético Colegiales

Atyrá and Atlético Colegiales drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco de Asis in Atyrä.