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Atvidabergs FF vs Vänersborgs IF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Atvidabergs FF
Atvidabergs FF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vänersborgs IF
Vänersborgs IF
7/30/2022Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 15Kopparvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Atvidabergs FF38%
×Draw26%
Vänersborgs IF36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atvidabergs FF
1.38
Vänersborgs IF
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

creates per match

Atvidabergs FF
1.19
Vänersborgs IF
1.27

allows per match

Atvidabergs FF
1.37
Vänersborgs IF
1.56

finishing

Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par
Vänersborgs IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atvidabergs FF ↓

Vänersborgs IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atvidabergs FF or draw
64%
Atvidabergs FF or Vänersborgs IF
74%
Draw or Vänersborgs IF
62%

Winning margin

Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+
18%
Vänersborgs IF wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals
75%
Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals
40%
Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals
16%
Vänersborgs IF 1+ goals
73%
Vänersborgs IF 2+ goals
38%
Vänersborgs IF 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)
52%
Vänersborgs IF (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atvidabergs FF at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Vänersborgs IF away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atvidabergs FF attack 1.19 + Vänersborgs IF defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vänersborgs IF attack 1.27 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atvidabergs FF scores more
38%
level
26%
Vänersborgs IF scores more
36%

Atvidabergs FF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atvidabergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Atvidabergs FF 2–1 Vänersborgs IF

Atvidabergs FF beat Vänersborgs IF 2-1 in Ettan - Södra on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Kopparvallen in Åtvidaberg.