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Atvidabergs FF vs Syrianska FC — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Atvidabergs FF
Atvidabergs FF
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
5/19/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 8Kopparvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atvidabergs FF54%
×Draw21%
Syrianska FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atvidabergs FF
2.19
Syrianska FC
1.44

Atvidabergs FF creates 52% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 73 away

creates per match

Atvidabergs FF
2.53
Syrianska FC
1.73

allows per match

Atvidabergs FF
1.16
Syrianska FC
1.86

finishing

Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atvidabergs FF ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Atvidabergs FF or draw
75%
Atvidabergs FF or Syrianska FC
79%
Draw or Syrianska FC
46%

Winning margin

Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+
33%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals
89%
Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals
64%
Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals
37%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
76%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
42%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)
68%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atvidabergs FF at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atvidabergs FF attack 2.53 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.19

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atvidabergs FF scores more
54%
level
21%
Syrianska FC scores more
25%

Atvidabergs FF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atvidabergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atvidabergs FF vs Syrianska FC

Atvidabergs FF beat Syrianska FC 3-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Kopparvallen in Åtvidaberg.