Atvidabergs FF 4–2 Mjölby: Result & Stats

Atvidabergs FF

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Mjölby

O. Christiansson 61', 58'

C. Thulin 38'

A. Bergstrom 10'

E. Ibrahimbegovic 16'

M. Andersson 13'

8/5/2024

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 15Kopparvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atvidabergs FF66%

×Draw18%

Mjölby16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atvidabergs FFExpected goals in this matchMjölby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.19

Atvidabergs FF

2.52

Mjölby

1.19

Atvidabergs FF creates 112% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 40 away

2.53

creates per match

1.23

1.16

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Atvidabergs FF

2.53

Mjölby

1.23

allows per match

Atvidabergs FF

1.16

Mjölby

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par

Mjölby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atvidabergs FF ↓

Mjölby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Atvidabergs FF or draw

84%

Atvidabergs FF or Mjölby

82%

Draw or Mjölby

34%

Winning margin

Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+

44%

Mjölby wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals

92%

Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals

71%

Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals

45%

Mjölby 1+ goals

70%

Mjölby 2+ goals

33%

Mjölby 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)

80%

Mjölby (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atvidabergs FF at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Mjölby away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atvidabergs FF attack 2.53 + Mjölby defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.52

Mjölby attack 1.23 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Atvidabergs FF scores more

66%

level

18%

Mjölby scores more

16%

Atvidabergs FF at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Atvidabergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Bergstrom

13'

M. Andersson

16'

E. Ibrahimbegovic

29'

O. Yilmaz

38'

C. Thulin

58'

O. Christiansson

61'

O. Christiansson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff