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ATSV Erlangen vs Kornburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kornburg
Kornburg
J. Kussmann 61'
M. Gotz 77'
5/18/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 38Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ATSV Erlangen46%
×Draw23%
Kornburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATSV Erlangen
1.77
Kornburg
1.41

ATSV Erlangen creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.78
Kornburg
1.44

allows per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.37
Kornburg
1.76

finishing

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par
Kornburg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATSV Erlangen ↓

Kornburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

ATSV Erlangen or draw
69%
ATSV Erlangen or Kornburg
77%
Draw or Kornburg
54%

Winning margin

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
25%
Kornburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
83%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
53%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
26%
Kornburg 1+ goals
76%
Kornburg 2+ goals
41%
Kornburg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
60%
Kornburg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATSV Erlangen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Kornburg away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.76 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.78 + Kornburg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kornburg attack 1.44 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ATSV Erlangen scores more
46%
level
23%
Kornburg scores more
31%

ATSV Erlangen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
J. Kussmann
77'
M. Gotz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: ATSV Erlangen 1–1 Kornburg

ATSV Erlangen and Kornburg drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 18, 2024.

Goals: J. Kussmann (61'), M. Gotz (77').

The match was played at Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse in Erlangen.