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ATSV Erlangen vs Geesdorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Geesdorf
Geesdorf
T. Groger 89'
P. Benes 87'
L. Markert 23'
5/20/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 33Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ATSV Erlangen74%
×Draw15%
Geesdorf11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATSV Erlangen
2.75
Geesdorf
0.98

ATSV Erlangen creates 181% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.78
Geesdorf
0.59

allows per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.37
Geesdorf
3.71

finishing

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par
Geesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATSV Erlangen ↓

Geesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

ATSV Erlangen or draw
89%
ATSV Erlangen or Geesdorf
85%
Draw or Geesdorf
26%

Winning margin

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
53%
Geesdorf wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
93%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
75%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
51%
Geesdorf 1+ goals
62%
Geesdorf 2+ goals
26%
Geesdorf 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
87%
Geesdorf (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATSV Erlangen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Geesdorf away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.78 + Geesdorf defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.75

Geesdorf attack 0.59 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

ATSV Erlangen scores more
74%
level
15%
Geesdorf scores more
11%

ATSV Erlangen at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
L. Markert
87'
P. Benes
89'
T. Groger

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ATSV Erlangen vs Geesdorf

ATSV Erlangen beat Geesdorf 3-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 20, 2023.

Goals: L. Markert (23'), P. Benes (87'), T. Groger (89').

The match was played at Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse in Erlangen.