ATSV Erlangen 2–2 Donaustauf: Result & Stats

ATSV Erlangen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Donaustauf

L. Markert 90+5'

A. Hoti 50' (OG)

T. Konig 45+1', 2'

10/3/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 15Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ATSV Erlangen46%

×Draw23%

Donaustauf31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ATSV ErlangenExpected goals in this matchDonaustauf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.50

ATSV Erlangen

1.86

Donaustauf

1.50

ATSV Erlangen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 35 away

1.78

creates per match

1.63

1.37

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

ATSV Erlangen

1.78

Donaustauf

1.63

allows per match

ATSV Erlangen

1.37

Donaustauf

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Donaustauf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATSV Erlangen ↓

Donaustauf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

ATSV Erlangen or draw

69%

ATSV Erlangen or Donaustauf

77%

Draw or Donaustauf

54%

Winning margin

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+

25%

Donaustauf wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals

84%

ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals

55%

ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals

28%

Donaustauf 1+ goals

78%

Donaustauf 2+ goals

44%

Donaustauf 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)

60%

Donaustauf (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATSV Erlangen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Donaustauf away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.94 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.78 + Donaustauf defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.86

Donaustauf attack 1.63 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ATSV Erlangen scores more

46%

level

23%

Donaustauf scores more

31%

ATSV Erlangen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

T. Konig

45+1'

T. Konig

50'

A. HotiOwn goal

90+5'

L. Markert

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff