Atromitos 0–2 Olympiakos Piraeus: Result & Stats

Atromitos

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Olympiakos Piraeus

1/10/2026

Super League 1 · Round 16Peristeri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Atromitos26%

×Draw27%

Olympiakos Piraeus47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtromitosExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos Piraeus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.41

Atromitos

0.96

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.41

Olympiakos Piraeus creates 47% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 137 away

1.23

creates per match

1.71

1.11

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Atromitos

1.23

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.71

allows per match

Atromitos

1.11

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atromitos+0.00on par

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atromitos ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atromitos or draw

53%

Atromitos or Olympiakos Piraeus

73%

Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus

74%

Winning margin

Atromitos wins by 2+

9%

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Atromitos 1+ goals

62%

Atromitos 2+ goals

25%

Atromitos 3+ goals

7%

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

76%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

41%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Atromitos (draw refunded)

35%

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atromitos at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 133 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.69 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atromitos attack 1.23 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.96

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.71 + Atromitos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atromitos scores more

26%

level

27%

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

47%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff