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Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis — Super League 1 2018

Atromitos
Atromitos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis
11/30/2025Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 12Peristeri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Atromitos44%
×Draw28%
Asteras Tripolis28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atromitos
1.29
Asteras Tripolis
0.98

Atromitos creates 32% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 131 away

creates per match

Atromitos
1.23
Asteras Tripolis
0.84

allows per match

Atromitos
1.11
Asteras Tripolis
1.36

finishing

Atromitos+0.00on par
Asteras Tripolis+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atromitos ↓

Asteras Tripolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atromitos or draw
72%
Atromitos or Asteras Tripolis
72%
Draw or Asteras Tripolis
56%

Winning margin

Atromitos wins by 2+
20%
Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atromitos 1+ goals
72%
Atromitos 2+ goals
37%
Atromitos 3+ goals
14%
Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals
62%
Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals
26%
Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atromitos (draw refunded)
61%
Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atromitos at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 133 matches

Asteras Tripolis away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atromitos attack 1.23 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Asteras Tripolis attack 0.84 + Atromitos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atromitos scores more
44%
level
28%
Asteras Tripolis scores more
28%

Atromitos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atromitos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Atromitos 0–1 Asteras Tripolis

Asteras Tripolis beat Atromitos 1-0 in Super League 1 on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Peristeri Stadium in Athens.