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Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC — Super League 1 2018

Atromitos
Atromitos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
11/3/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 10Stadio Peristeriou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Atromitos31%
×Draw27%
AEK Athens FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atromitos
1.11
AEK Athens FC
1.32

AEK Athens FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 137 away

creates per match

Atromitos
1.23
AEK Athens FC
1.53

allows per match

Atromitos
1.11
AEK Athens FC
1.00

finishing

Atromitos+0.00on par
AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atromitos ↓

AEK Athens FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atromitos or draw
59%
Atromitos or AEK Athens FC
73%
Draw or AEK Athens FC
69%

Winning margin

Atromitos wins by 2+
12%
AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atromitos 1+ goals
67%
Atromitos 2+ goals
30%
Atromitos 3+ goals
10%
AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
73%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
38%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Atromitos (draw refunded)
43%
AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atromitos at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 133 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atromitos attack 1.23 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

AEK Athens FC attack 1.53 + Atromitos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atromitos scores more
31%
level
27%
AEK Athens FC scores more
41%

AEK Athens FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC beat Atromitos 1-0 in Super League 1 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Peristeriou in Athens.