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Atmosfera vs Vilniaus Vytis — 1 Lyga 2026

Atmosfera
Atmosfera
FT
0 – 6
Vilniaus Vytis
Vilniaus Vytis
10/20/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 29Mažeikių m. centrinis stadionas (Mažeikiai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Atmosfera29%
×Draw22%
Vilniaus Vytis49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atmosfera
1.50
Vilniaus Vytis
1.98

Vilniaus Vytis creates 32% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 23 away

creates per match

Atmosfera
1.38
Vilniaus Vytis
1.91

allows per match

Atmosfera
2.04
Vilniaus Vytis
1.61

finishing

Atmosfera+0.00on par
Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atmosfera ↓

Vilniaus Vytis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Atmosfera or draw
51%
Atmosfera or Vilniaus Vytis
78%
Draw or Vilniaus Vytis
71%

Winning margin

Atmosfera wins by 2+
13%
Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Atmosfera 1+ goals
78%
Atmosfera 2+ goals
44%
Atmosfera 3+ goals
19%
Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals
86%
Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals
59%
Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Atmosfera (draw refunded)
38%
Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atmosfera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.04 · 90 matches

Vilniaus Vytis away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atmosfera attack 1.38 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vilniaus Vytis attack 1.91 + Atmosfera defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atmosfera scores more
29%
level
22%
Vilniaus Vytis scores more
49%

Vilniaus Vytis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Atmosfera 0–6 Vilniaus Vytis

Vilniaus Vytis beat Atmosfera 6-0 in 1 Lyga on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Mažeikių m. centrinis stadionas (Mažeikiai).