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Atmosfera vs Sūduva II — 1 Lyga 2026

Atmosfera
Atmosfera
FT
2 – 1
Sūduva II
Sūduva II
5/28/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 9Mažeikių m. centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Atmosfera46%
×Draw24%
Sūduva II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atmosfera
1.73
Sūduva II
1.36

Atmosfera creates 27% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 13 away

creates per match

Atmosfera
1.38
Sūduva II
0.69

allows per match

Atmosfera
2.04
Sūduva II
2.08

finishing

Atmosfera+0.00on par
Sūduva II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atmosfera ↓

Sūduva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Atmosfera or draw
70%
Atmosfera or Sūduva II
76%
Draw or Sūduva II
54%

Winning margin

Atmosfera wins by 2+
25%
Sūduva II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atmosfera 1+ goals
82%
Atmosfera 2+ goals
52%
Atmosfera 3+ goals
25%
Sūduva II 1+ goals
74%
Sūduva II 2+ goals
39%
Sūduva II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atmosfera (draw refunded)
60%
Sūduva II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atmosfera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.04 · 90 matches

Sūduva II away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atmosfera attack 1.38 + Sūduva II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sūduva II attack 0.69 + Atmosfera defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atmosfera scores more
46%
level
24%
Sūduva II scores more
30%

Atmosfera at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atmosfera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Atmosfera 2–1 Sūduva II

Atmosfera beat Sūduva II 2-1 in 1 Lyga on May 28, 2021.

The match was played at Mažeikių m. centrinis stadionas in Mažeikiai.