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Atmosfera vs Šilas — 1 Lyga 2026

Atmosfera
Atmosfera
FT
0 – 1
Šilas
Šilas
6/27/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 12Mažeikių m. centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Atmosfera33%
×Draw23%
Šilas45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atmosfera
1.53
Šilas
1.83

Šilas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 41 away

creates per match

Atmosfera
1.38
Šilas
1.63

allows per match

Atmosfera
2.04
Šilas
1.68

finishing

Atmosfera+0.00on par
Šilas+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atmosfera ↓

Šilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Atmosfera or draw
55%
Atmosfera or Šilas
77%
Draw or Šilas
67%

Winning margin

Atmosfera wins by 2+
15%
Šilas wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Atmosfera 1+ goals
78%
Atmosfera 2+ goals
45%
Atmosfera 3+ goals
20%
Šilas 1+ goals
84%
Šilas 2+ goals
54%
Šilas 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Atmosfera (draw refunded)
42%
Šilas (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atmosfera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.04 · 90 matches

Šilas away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atmosfera attack 1.38 + Šilas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

Šilas attack 1.63 + Atmosfera defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atmosfera scores more
33%
level
23%
Šilas scores more
45%

Šilas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Šilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Atmosfera 0–1 Šilas

Šilas beat Atmosfera 1-0 in 1 Lyga on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Mažeikių m. centrinis stadionas in Mažeikiai.