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Atmosfera vs Panevėžys II — 1 Lyga 2026

Atmosfera
Atmosfera
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
D. Gineitis 65'
A. Jusys 10'
R. Kulbis 8'
9/20/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 23Mažeikių stadionas dirbtinė danga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Atmosfera39%
×Draw22%
Panevėžys II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atmosfera
1.78
Panevėžys II
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 81 away

creates per match

Atmosfera
1.38
Panevėžys II
1.47

allows per match

Atmosfera
2.04
Panevėžys II
2.19

finishing

Atmosfera+0.00on par
Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atmosfera ↓

Panevėžys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Atmosfera or draw
62%
Atmosfera or Panevėžys II
78%
Draw or Panevėžys II
61%

Winning margin

Atmosfera wins by 2+
21%
Panevėžys II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Atmosfera 1+ goals
83%
Atmosfera 2+ goals
53%
Atmosfera 3+ goals
26%
Panevėžys II 1+ goals
83%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
52%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Atmosfera (draw refunded)
51%
Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atmosfera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.04 · 90 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atmosfera attack 1.38 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.78

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Atmosfera defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atmosfera scores more
39%
level
22%
Panevėžys II scores more
38%

Atmosfera at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atmosfera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
R. Kulbis
10'
A. Jusys
20'
M. Malatokas
46'
S. Vasquez← S. Vasquez
46'
N. Srederis← N. Srederis
46'
M. Ogundu← M. Ogundu
54'
D. Gineitis
56'
A. Jusys
62'
T. Hiruma← T. Hiruma
65'
D. Gineitis
70'
A. Andriejauskas← A. Andriejauskas
70'
E. Dzinga
74'
D. Bukel
75'
S. VasquezMissed penalty
84'
A. Butkus← A. Butkus
88'
M. Ogundu
90+4'
M. Dilys← M. Dilys

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Atmosfera 1–2 Panevėžys II

Panevėžys II beat Atmosfera 2-1 in 1 Lyga on September 20, 2024.

Goals: R. Kulbis (8'), A. Jusys (10'), D. Gineitis (65').

The match was played at Mažeikių stadionas dirbtinė danga in Mažeikiai.