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Atmosfera vs Pakruojis — 1 Lyga 2026

Atmosfera
Atmosfera
FT
0 – 2
Pakruojis
Pakruojis
5/19/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 9Mažeikių m. centrinis stadionas (Mažeikiai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atmosfera74%
×Draw13%
Pakruojis13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atmosfera
3.58
Pakruojis
1.52

Atmosfera creates 136% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atmosfera
1.38
Pakruojis
1.00

allows per match

Atmosfera
2.04
Pakruojis
5.79

finishing

Atmosfera+0.00on par
Pakruojis+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atmosfera ↓

Pakruojis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Atmosfera or draw
87%
Atmosfera or Pakruojis
87%
Draw or Pakruojis
26%

Winning margin

Atmosfera wins by 2+
56%
Pakruojis wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atmosfera 1+ goals
97%
Atmosfera 2+ goals
86%
Atmosfera 3+ goals
67%
Pakruojis 1+ goals
78%
Pakruojis 2+ goals
45%
Pakruojis 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Atmosfera (draw refunded)
85%
Pakruojis (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atmosfera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.04 · 90 matches

Pakruojis away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atmosfera attack 1.38 + Pakruojis defence 5.79 → ÷2 → 3.58

Pakruojis attack 1.00 + Atmosfera defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Atmosfera scores more
74%
level
13%
Pakruojis scores more
13%

Atmosfera at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Atmosfera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Atmosfera 0–2 Pakruojis

Pakruojis beat Atmosfera 2-0 in 1 Lyga on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Mažeikių m. centrinis stadionas (Mažeikiai).