Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atmosfera vs Jonava — 1 Lyga 2026

Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Preview
12:00
Jonava
Jonava
10/24/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 28
Big match
43%
Jonava
model favours
34%24%43%

Jonava score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Atmosfera34%
×Draw24%
Jonava43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atmosfera
1.46
Jonava
1.67

Jonava creates 14% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 72 away

creates per match

Atmosfera
1.43
Jonava
1.32

allows per match

Atmosfera
2.03
Jonava
1.49

finishing

Atmosfera+0.00on par
Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atmosfera ↓

Jonava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Atmosfera or draw
57%
Atmosfera or Jonava
76%
Draw or Jonava
66%

Winning margin

Atmosfera wins by 2+
16%
Jonava wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Atmosfera 1+ goals
77%
Atmosfera 2+ goals
43%
Atmosfera 3+ goals
18%
Jonava 1+ goals
81%
Jonava 2+ goals
50%
Jonava 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Atmosfera (draw refunded)
44%
Jonava (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atmosfera at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.03 · 87 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atmosfera attack 1.43 + Jonava defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Jonava attack 1.32 + Atmosfera defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atmosfera scores more
34%
level
24%
Jonava scores more
43%

Jonava at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 100% of Atmosfera’s matches
  • Jonava have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 67% of Jonava’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Atmosfera
WLWLD
Jonava
WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atmosfera face Jonava (1 Lyga)

1 Lyga returns with Atmosfera hosting Jonava. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.