Atmosfera 2–1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius: Result & Stats

Atmosfera

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

4/21/2026

Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atmosfera12%

×Draw17%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtmosferaExpected goals in this matchFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

2.50

Atmosfera

0.94

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.50

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 166% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

2.50

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Atmosfera

1.00

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.50

allows per match

Atmosfera

2.50

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atmosfera+0.00on par

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atmosfera ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–24%

2–34%

2–42%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Atmosfera or draw

29%

Atmosfera or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

83%

Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

88%

Winning margin

Atmosfera wins by 2+

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Atmosfera 1+ goals

61%

Atmosfera 2+ goals

24%

Atmosfera 3+ goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

92%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

71%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Atmosfera (draw refunded)

15%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atmosfera at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atmosfera attack 1.00 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.50 + Atmosfera defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Atmosfera scores more

12%

level

17%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

71%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff