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Atletik Kuklen vs Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
FT
1 – 0
Svilengrad
Svilengrad
10/5/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 10Stadion Kuklen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Atletik Kuklen57%
×Draw23%
Svilengrad20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletik Kuklen
1.79
Svilengrad
0.95

Atletik Kuklen creates 88% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 26 away

creates per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.46
Svilengrad
0.69

allows per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.21
Svilengrad
2.12

finishing

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par
Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletik Kuklen ↓

Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atletik Kuklen or draw
80%
Atletik Kuklen or Svilengrad
77%
Draw or Svilengrad
43%

Winning margin

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
32%
Svilengrad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
83%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
53%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
26%
Svilengrad 1+ goals
61%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
25%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
74%
Svilengrad (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletik Kuklen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

Svilengrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.46 + Svilengrad defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.79

Svilengrad attack 0.69 + Atletik Kuklen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atletik Kuklen scores more
57%
level
23%
Svilengrad scores more
20%

Atletik Kuklen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atletik Kuklen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Atletik Kuklen 1–0 Svilengrad

Atletik Kuklen beat Svilengrad 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kuklen in Kuklen.