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Atletik Kuklen vs Spartak Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
8/3/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 1Stadion Kuklen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Atletik Kuklen38%
×Draw25%
Spartak Plovdiv37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletik Kuklen
1.44
Spartak Plovdiv
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 136 home / 92 away

creates per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.46
Spartak Plovdiv
1.62

allows per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.21
Spartak Plovdiv
1.42

finishing

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par
Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletik Kuklen ↓

Spartak Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Atletik Kuklen or draw
63%
Atletik Kuklen or Spartak Plovdiv
75%
Draw or Spartak Plovdiv
62%

Winning margin

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
18%
Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
76%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
42%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
18%
Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
76%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
41%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
51%
Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletik Kuklen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

Spartak Plovdiv away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.46 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Spartak Plovdiv attack 1.62 + Atletik Kuklen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletik Kuklen scores more
38%
level
25%
Spartak Plovdiv scores more
37%

Atletik Kuklen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletik Kuklen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Atletik Kuklen 1–1 Spartak Plovdiv

Atletik Kuklen and Spartak Plovdiv drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kuklen in Kuklen.