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Atletik Kuklen vs Minyor Radnevo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
FT
0 – 2
Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
4/10/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 25Stadion Kuklen (Kuklen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atletik Kuklen40%
×Draw28%
Minyor Radnevo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletik Kuklen
1.25
Minyor Radnevo
1.10

Atletik Kuklen creates 14% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 27 away

creates per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.46
Minyor Radnevo
1.00

allows per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.21
Minyor Radnevo
1.04

finishing

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par
Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletik Kuklen ↓

Minyor Radnevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletik Kuklen or draw
68%
Atletik Kuklen or Minyor Radnevo
72%
Draw or Minyor Radnevo
60%

Winning margin

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
17%
Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
71%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
36%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
13%
Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
67%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
30%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
55%
Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletik Kuklen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

Minyor Radnevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.46 + Minyor Radnevo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.00 + Atletik Kuklen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletik Kuklen scores more
40%
level
28%
Minyor Radnevo scores more
32%

Atletik Kuklen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atletik Kuklen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Atletik Kuklen 0–2 Minyor Radnevo

Minyor Radnevo beat Atletik Kuklen 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kuklen (Kuklen).