Atletik Kuklen 0–0 Levski Krumovgrad

Atletik Kuklen

FT

0 – 0

Levski Krumovgrad

10/23/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 12Stadion Kuklen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletik Kuklen18%

×Draw22%

Levski Krumovgrad60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletik KuklenExpected goals in this matchLevski Krumovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.90

Atletik Kuklen

0.93

Levski Krumovgrad

1.90

Levski Krumovgrad creates 104% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 17 away

1.46

creates per match

2.59

1.21

allows per match

0.41

creates per match

Atletik Kuklen

1.46

Levski Krumovgrad

2.59

allows per match

Atletik Kuklen

1.21

Levski Krumovgrad

0.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletik Kuklen ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atletik Kuklen or draw

40%

Atletik Kuklen or Levski Krumovgrad

78%

Draw or Levski Krumovgrad

82%

Winning margin

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+

6%

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals

61%

Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals

24%

Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals

7%

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

85%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

56%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)

23%

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletik Kuklen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 2.59, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.46 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.93

Levski Krumovgrad attack 2.59 + Atletik Kuklen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atletik Kuklen scores more

18%

level

22%

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

60%

Levski Krumovgrad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff