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Atlético Vinotinto vs San Antonio — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Atlético Vinotinto
Atlético Vinotinto
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Antonio
San Antonio
F. Avila 83'
K. Valencia 71'
6/13/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 13Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Vinotinto62%
×Draw23%
San Antonio15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Vinotinto
1.78
San Antonio
0.75

Atlético Vinotinto creates 137% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 28 away

creates per match

Atlético Vinotinto
2.31
San Antonio
0.75

allows per match

Atlético Vinotinto
0.75
San Antonio
1.25

finishing

Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par
San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Vinotinto ↓

San Antonio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Vinotinto or draw
85%
Atlético Vinotinto or San Antonio
77%
Draw or San Antonio
38%

Winning margin

Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+
36%
San Antonio wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals
83%
Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals
53%
Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals
26%
San Antonio 1+ goals
53%
San Antonio 2+ goals
17%
San Antonio 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)
80%
San Antonio (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Vinotinto at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

San Antonio away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Vinotinto attack 2.31 + San Antonio defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.78

San Antonio attack 0.75 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atlético Vinotinto scores more
62%
level
23%
San Antonio scores more
15%

Atlético Vinotinto at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atlético Vinotinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
K. Valencia
83'
F. Avila
Atlético
San
L. Soler
Manager: L. Soler
A. Vinueza
Manager: A. Vinueza

Liga Pro Serie B: Atlético Vinotinto 1–1 San Antonio

Atlético Vinotinto and San Antonio drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on June 13, 2025.

Goals: K. Valencia (71'), F. Avila (83').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.