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Atlético Victoria vs Vera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Victoria
Atlético Victoria
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vera
Vera
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2Estadio Munincipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Victoria45%
×Draw26%
Vera30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Victoria
1.49
Vera
1.17

Atlético Victoria creates 27% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 44 away

creates per match

Atlético Victoria
1.16
Vera
1.11

allows per match

Atlético Victoria
1.23
Vera
1.82

finishing

Atlético Victoria+0.00on par
Vera+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Victoria ↓

Vera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Victoria or draw
70%
Atlético Victoria or Vera
74%
Draw or Vera
55%

Winning margin

Atlético Victoria wins by 2+
22%
Vera wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlético Victoria 1+ goals
77%
Atlético Victoria 2+ goals
44%
Atlético Victoria 3+ goals
19%
Vera 1+ goals
69%
Vera 2+ goals
33%
Vera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlético Victoria (draw refunded)
60%
Vera (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Victoria at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Vera away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Victoria attack 1.16 + Vera defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.49

Vera attack 1.11 + Atlético Victoria defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Victoria scores more
45%
level
26%
Vera scores more
30%

Atlético Victoria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Atlético Victoria 2–0 Vera

Atlético Victoria beat Vera 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Munincipal in Tenerife.