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Atlético Victoria vs San Bartolomé — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Victoria
Atlético Victoria
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
5/12/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 34Estadio Munincipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Victoria44%
×Draw27%
San Bartolomé30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Victoria
1.40
San Bartolomé
1.11

Atlético Victoria creates 26% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 51 away

creates per match

Atlético Victoria
1.16
San Bartolomé
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Victoria
1.23
San Bartolomé
1.63

finishing

Atlético Victoria+0.00on par
San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Victoria ↓

San Bartolomé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Victoria or draw
70%
Atlético Victoria or San Bartolomé
73%
Draw or San Bartolomé
56%

Winning margin

Atlético Victoria wins by 2+
21%
San Bartolomé wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlético Victoria 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Victoria 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Victoria 3+ goals
17%
San Bartolomé 1+ goals
67%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
30%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Victoria (draw refunded)
59%
San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Victoria at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

San Bartolomé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Victoria attack 1.16 + San Bartolomé defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

San Bartolomé attack 1.00 + Atlético Victoria defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Victoria scores more
44%
level
27%
San Bartolomé scores more
30%

Atlético Victoria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Atlético Victoria 2–1 San Bartolomé

Atlético Victoria beat San Bartolomé 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Munincipal in Tenerife.