Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlético Victoria vs Panadería Pulido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Victoria
Atlético Victoria
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Panadería Pulido
Panadería Pulido
3/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 24Estadio Munincipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Victoria34%
×Draw27%
Panadería Pulido38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Victoria
1.19
Panadería Pulido
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 94 away

creates per match

Atlético Victoria
1.16
Panadería Pulido
1.31

allows per match

Atlético Victoria
1.23
Panadería Pulido
1.21

finishing

Atlético Victoria+0.00on par
Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Victoria ↓

Panadería Pulido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Victoria or draw
62%
Atlético Victoria or Panadería Pulido
73%
Draw or Panadería Pulido
66%

Winning margin

Atlético Victoria wins by 2+
14%
Panadería Pulido wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atlético Victoria 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Victoria 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Victoria 3+ goals
12%
Panadería Pulido 1+ goals
72%
Panadería Pulido 2+ goals
36%
Panadería Pulido 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Victoria (draw refunded)
47%
Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Victoria at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Panadería Pulido away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Victoria attack 1.16 + Panadería Pulido defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Panadería Pulido attack 1.31 + Atlético Victoria defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Victoria scores more
34%
level
27%
Panadería Pulido scores more
38%

Panadería Pulido at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Panadería Pulido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Victoria 0 – 0 Panadería Pulido

Atlético Victoria and Panadería Pulido drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Munincipal in Tenerife.