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Atlético Victoria vs Mensajero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Victoria
Atlético Victoria
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mensajero
Mensajero
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 21Estadio Munincipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Victoria39%
×Draw27%
Mensajero34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Victoria
1.26
Mensajero
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 76 away

creates per match

Atlético Victoria
1.16
Mensajero
1.08

allows per match

Atlético Victoria
1.23
Mensajero
1.36

finishing

Atlético Victoria+0.00on par
Mensajero+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Victoria ↓

Mensajero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Victoria or draw
66%
Atlético Victoria or Mensajero
73%
Draw or Mensajero
61%

Winning margin

Atlético Victoria wins by 2+
17%
Mensajero wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atlético Victoria 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Victoria 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Victoria 3+ goals
13%
Mensajero 1+ goals
69%
Mensajero 2+ goals
32%
Mensajero 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlético Victoria (draw refunded)
53%
Mensajero (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Victoria at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Mensajero away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Victoria attack 1.16 + Mensajero defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

Mensajero attack 1.08 + Atlético Victoria defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Victoria scores more
39%
level
27%
Mensajero scores more
34%

Atlético Victoria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Atlético Victoria 0–1 Mensajero

Mensajero beat Atlético Victoria 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Munincipal in Tenerife.