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Atlético Victoria vs Ibarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Victoria
Atlético Victoria
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ibarra
Ibarra
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2Estadio Munincipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Victoria49%
×Draw25%
Ibarra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Victoria
1.57
Ibarra
1.05

Atlético Victoria creates 50% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 77 away

creates per match

Atlético Victoria
1.16
Ibarra
0.88

allows per match

Atlético Victoria
1.23
Ibarra
1.99

finishing

Atlético Victoria+0.00on par
Ibarra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Victoria ↓

Ibarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Victoria or draw
75%
Atlético Victoria or Ibarra
75%
Draw or Ibarra
51%

Winning margin

Atlético Victoria wins by 2+
25%
Ibarra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Victoria 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Victoria 2+ goals
46%
Atlético Victoria 3+ goals
21%
Ibarra 1+ goals
65%
Ibarra 2+ goals
28%
Ibarra 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Victoria (draw refunded)
66%
Ibarra (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Victoria at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Ibarra away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Victoria attack 1.16 + Ibarra defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ibarra attack 0.88 + Atlético Victoria defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Victoria scores more
49%
level
25%
Ibarra scores more
25%

Atlético Victoria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Victoria vs Ibarra

Ibarra beat Atlético Victoria 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Munincipal in Tenerife.