Atlético Victoria 0–3 Arucas: Result & Stats

Atlético Victoria

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Arucas

10/29/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 8Estadio Munincipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Victoria40%

×Draw27%

Arucas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético VictoriaExpected goals in this matchArucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.15

Atlético Victoria

1.31

Arucas

1.15

Atlético Victoria creates 14% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 96 away

1.16

creates per match

1.06

1.23

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Atlético Victoria

1.16

Arucas

1.06

allows per match

Atlético Victoria

1.23

Arucas

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Victoria+0.00on par

Arucas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Victoria ↓

Arucas →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Victoria or draw

67%

Atlético Victoria or Arucas

73%

Draw or Arucas

60%

Winning margin

Atlético Victoria wins by 2+

18%

Arucas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atlético Victoria 1+ goals

73%

Atlético Victoria 2+ goals

38%

Atlético Victoria 3+ goals

14%

Arucas 1+ goals

68%

Arucas 2+ goals

32%

Arucas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atlético Victoria (draw refunded)

55%

Arucas (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Victoria at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Arucas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Victoria attack 1.16 + Arucas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Arucas attack 1.06 + Atlético Victoria defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlético Victoria scores more

40%

level

27%

Arucas scores more

33%

Atlético Victoria at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff