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Atletico Venezuela vs Metropolitanos FC — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
4/16/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 1Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Atletico Venezuela41%
×Draw27%
Metropolitanos FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.33
Metropolitanos FC
1.16

Atletico Venezuela creates 15% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 140 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
Metropolitanos FC
1.07

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
Metropolitanos FC
1.37

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
68%
Atletico Venezuela or Metropolitanos FC
73%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
59%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
19%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
74%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
38%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
15%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
69%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
32%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
56%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.07 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
41%
level
27%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
32%

Atletico Venezuela at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Venezuela vs Metropolitanos FC

Atletico Venezuela beat Metropolitanos FC 3-2 in Primera División on April 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte in Caracas.