Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atletico Venezuela vs Lala FC — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
CANC
20:00
Lala FC
Lala FC
5/31/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 17Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atletico Venezuela54%
×Draw25%
Lala FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.65
Lala FC
0.93

Atletico Venezuela creates 77% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 34 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
Lala FC
0.62

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
Lala FC
2.00

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
Lala FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Lala FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
79%
Atletico Venezuela or Lala FC
75%
Draw or Lala FC
46%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
29%
Lala FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
81%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
49%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
23%
Lala FC 1+ goals
61%
Lala FC 2+ goals
24%
Lala FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
72%
Lala FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Lala FC away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Lala FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lala FC attack 0.62 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
54%
level
25%
Lala FC scores more
21%

Atletico Venezuela at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Venezuela vs Lala FC — Match Preview

Atletico Venezuela face Lala FC on May 31, 2020 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Atletico Venezuela host Lala FC at Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.